A Game of Thrones: Why does Cersei choose this moment?

Exploring the depths of Lannister logic.

I’ve just finished reading the first book in George R. R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series, A Game of Thrones (1996), and I have some questions! The one that sticks with me most is this: Why does Cersei choose this moment for Robert’s death? Does she really choose it at all?

Where do we start?

We enter Westeros shortly after the death of Lord Jon Arryn, the previous Hand to King Robert Baratheon. In the events of the first book, Robert installs Lord Eddard (Ned) Stark as his new Hand, and then Robert dies after a hunting mishap involving a wild boar and dubious wine. After Robert’s death, Queen Cersei and Ned clash over who rightfully belongs on the Iron Throne.

Cersei supports her son Joffrey’s claim, which seems all well and good according to the laws of the Realm, until you consider that Joff is not, in fact, Robert Baratheon’s trueborn son. Joff was borne of a longstanding incestuous relationship between Cersei and her twin brother, Jaime, which makes him Lannister through and through. The book describes all of Cersei’s children as having golden hair, which leads one to believe that none share Robert’s blood.

Ned, knowing all of this, believes the true heir to be Stannis, Robert’s oldest living brother and closest blood kin. To everyone’s dismay, Ned divulges what he knows to Cersei before Robert’s death, and gives her the chance to flee King’s Landing with her children. Unwittingly, he instead grants time for the Lannisters to prepare their defenses and scheme to discredit and, ultimately, kill Ned.

Did Cersei order Robert’s death?

After Robert’s death, Varys, the eunuch, whispers of poison and plots by the Lannisters to dispose of Robert, and Ned suspects that Cersei herself ordered his death. The reader gets the sense that this is true, though I suppose her hand in Robert’s death has not yet been confirmed.

In that ill-advised conversation between Ned and Cersei, she’s forthcoming about her distaste for Robert and her protectiveness over her children, and after Robert’s death, she grieves not. His death seems not to ruffle her, but is that enough to say that she ordered it done?

Before the Tourney of the Hand, she tried to provoke Robert into competing in the melee, and Varys suggests that there were Lannister swords positioned to kill him there. Ned counseled Robert against participating, thwarting that alleged attempt on his life. Had that been all, Cersei’s hands would appear relatively clean, even if a bit suspicious.

However, Cersei’s cousin (and maybe lover, and also squire to King Robert) Lancel cracks under interrogation. As the king’s squire, he served the wine that tanked Robert before his boar hunt. According to Varys, Lancel confessed that he received the order and the wine from Queen Cersei before the hunt began. I’m still not certain how much stock to put in Varys’ word, but for now I’ll take this as truth.

Assuming Cersei did, in fact, order her lord husband’s death, why did she choose this moment?

Why not kill Robert earlier?

So, if the Lannisters are so hungry for power that they would kill their king, why haven’t they done it already? It appears that Cersei — and the rest of the Lannisters — were biding their time, waiting for Joffrey to come of age. He’s twelve years old at the start of the book, and it seems that “coming of age” in Westeros is generally understood to be around age sixteen.

To this point, Robert had been playing into the Lannisters’ hands quite well, and it didn’t seem worth the risk to plot his death. After all, if he died while Joff was still deemed too young to rule, Jon Arryn would likely be named Regent. With Arryn as Regent, the Lannisters could lose some of their grip on the monarchy, and risk the fallout of a Regent discovering Cersei and Jaime’s little secret(s). For the time being, it seems easiest to keep Robert around.

Now, if they wanted to ensure that rule would pass to Lannister hands, there would be a lot of work to do. Not only would Robert need to die, but so would Jon Arryn (lest he be named Regent), Stannis Baratheon (Robert’s oldest brother, who also seems to be famously difficult to reach), and Renly Baratheon (Robert’s younger brother). That’s a lot of blood in the water, all circling around the Lannisters, and even all of those deaths might not land a Lannister in the big chair. The juice is really not worth the squeeze.

Why not wait to kill Robert later?

But Joffrey is still only twelve! Why kill Robert now, when there’s a chance that Joff’s path to the throne is threatened based on his age?

It all comes back to the twincest. When Jon Arryn discovered the truth about Cersei and Jaime, he was killed. When Ned found out (and foolishly told Cersei), she might have liked to kill him, as well. But two Hands dead in less than a year? That might raise questions for which Cersei had no answers.

Now, Cersei was faced with the option to kill Ned and ensure Robert would never hear the truth from him, or continue her plots against Robert’s life and ensure that he would never hear the truth from anyone, at all. If Robert did discover the truth of Joff’s parentage, he would likely have Cersei, Jaime, and their children killed, casting shame on their House and undoing the work that brought them this close to the Iron Throne.

Perhaps believing that Joff’s path to the throne was as clear as it ever would be, Cersei elected to dispose of King Robert. In the chess of the game of thrones, she ultimately disposes of both Robert and Eddard, but that is more due to Joff’s temperament than Cersei’s scheming.

Was it the right time?

I think it was the only time. Amidst the strange circumstances of Jon Arryn’s death, it was only a matter of time until someone took a closer look and discovered the twins’ secret. It was unlucky for the Lannisters that that someone turned out to be Ned Stark, new Hand of the King. Had it been anyone else, perhaps there would have been more time for the Lannisters to plan (read: blackmail, maim, or kill) effectively, but Ned’s proximity to the king and his honorable tendencies drastically shrunk their window of opportunity.

In the Lannisters’ ideal world, perhaps Robert lived longer and gave Joff a chance to grow a bit more before taking the throne. This, however, would require a bit more secrecy on Cersei and Jaime’s part, which doesn’t seem within their wheelhouse.

I’ll start the second book in the series, A Clash of Kings (1998), after New Year’s festivities, and will certainly have more questions to work through. Until then!